My first trip to Burkina Faso - though hopefully not the last. Alone on the road with a driver who loves Marvin Gaye.
Sunday, July 01, 2012
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Mazimeru Hydro Power Plant inaugurated
Another of the hydro projects I was working on in Rwanda in 2006-2009 finally goes into operation. More importantly, the project vindicates private sector promotion as a way of developing the energy sector.
Good work CARERA, ADENYA and GIZ....
http://newsofrwanda.com/ibikorwa/8838/nyaruguru-district-prime-minister-commends-private-ownership-hydro-power-plant/
"“Do you see how state-owned companies differ from privately-owned ones?”, ... were [the] Prime Minister’s first words at Nshili hydro power plant, ... criticizing the slow-paced activities at Nshili hydro power plant – which is state-run "
Good work CARERA, ADENYA and GIZ....
http://newsofrwanda.com/ibikorwa/8838/nyaruguru-district-prime-minister-commends-private-ownership-hydro-power-plant/
"“Do you see how state-owned companies differ from privately-owned ones?”, ... were [the] Prime Minister’s first words at Nshili hydro power plant, ... criticizing the slow-paced activities at Nshili hydro power plant – which is state-run "
Wednesday, April 11, 2012
Mid-term project review of the CYIKAC project (http://tiny.cc/2470p)
Introduction
The State of Connecticut seconded the economic development and capacity building consultant Hank Morgan to the government of 6th Century Britain. The consultant’s mission is to:
- Advise the government on industrial development policy
- Plan and implement national infrastructure development
- Support and promote institutional reform
- Capacity building of government officials
- Improvement of the national schooling system
Whilst the consultant’s mandate is ambitious, it is felt that such a broad intervention is required to mobilise the critical momentum to lift Britain out of its poverty trap.
Outcomes
The consultant has been able to establish a number of small industries, has built one water supply well, developed a national telegraph network, and has undertaken a number of successful capacity building measures. Further, the consultant has initiated a number of policy initiatives and has begun a stakeholder consultation regarding constitutional reform
Sustainability of the intervention
Whilst it is difficult to assess the long-term impact of this intervention at this stage, it appears that the capacity building measures and high level of government commitment will ensure a lasting impact and the maintenance of new infrastructure created.
Challenges and risks
A number of challenges remain, particularly the low level of literacy due to the slow impact of improvements in the education system. Survey results have shown a low level of awareness of the development intervention, with some recipients referring to specific interventions as wizardry.
Political tension in the country continues to pose a risk to development workers’ personal safety. We propose that developments are monitored closely. Of particular concern is the potential for a power-struggle between the military, the clergy and the King.
Sunday, March 04, 2012
Sunday, February 26, 2012
To change or not to change
over time, the phenomenon of ‘strategic drift’ will occur ... This may be a process which takes very many years may not be discerned by the managers until the drift becomes so marked that performance declines ... As this drift becomes recognized, the organization is likely to enter a period of flux, in which there is no clear direction and a good deal of disquiet and counterargument about the strategic direction of the organization.
- G. Johnson, 'Managing Strategic Change', 1992 [1]
A 1992 management paper gives an interesting angle on how our governments are adjusting to our current financial, economic and fiscal crisis. Whilst Johnson was studying companies rather than governments, both are driven by many of the same dynamics that drive any complex organisation.
Faced with a stimulus for action, for example declining performance, managers first seek for means of improving the implementation of existing strategy, perhaps through the tightening of controls. In effect, they will tighten up their accepted way of operating. If this is not effective, then a change of strategy may occur, but a change which is in line with the existing paradigm.
What an apt description of the mess we’re in and how our leaders are dealing with it. Faced with stagnant economic growth and severe national debt problems for a decade or more, our solution is to tweak our systems and patch them up with liquidity.
Challenges to the legitimacy of constructs within that paradigm are not only likely to be disturbing because they attack those beliefs which are central to managerial life, they will also be interpreted as threatening by political elites in the organization ...
In these circumstances it is likely that, over time, the phenomenon of ‘strategic drift’ will occur ... This may be a process which takes very many years may not be discerned by the managers until the drift becomes so marked that performance declines.
...
As this drift becomes recognized, the strategy of the organization is likely to enter a period of flux, in which there is no clear direction and a good deal of disquiet and counterargument about the strategic direction of the organization. This will be likely to affect performance negatively and, perhaps, be followed bv a more radical change in strategy (Figure 3, Mode 3).’
So what if the current structure, institutions and power dynamics of our governments is simply not suited to deal with the huge challenges of our times: competitive pressures from emerging economies, an ageing population, low economic growth, a highly complex financial sector, a more unpredictable world in general and a system which allows borrowing all the money needed for government’s short-term budgets? What could "mode 3" (see below) look like?
[1] Johnson, G. (1992): “Managing Strategic Change – strategy, culture and action”, Long Range Planning, vol.25, no.1, pp. 28-36
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Kigali in 1968 to today
Not a new picture, but it still impresses me. The first picture is from 1968, the others are recent.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Another useless MBA?
If all goes well, I will be awarded an MBA later this year. There is some disagreement on the usefulness of MBAs, with one of the “MBAs-are-useless” argument running something like:
MBAs are meant to train managers who are used to making intuitive “common sense” decisions to use more process and model-based reasoning. Examples of this are “Porter’s 5 competitive forces model” or the “5 Ps of marketing”. However there is not clear evidence that such methods and models produce better decisions or better managers. Furthermore, after completing MBAs most managers simply fall back into old practices and habits.
For a long time I held the view that an MBA is mainly just a good way to learn a certain “vocabulary” as well as financial analysis skills, but beyond that has a theories and models of questionable usefulness. With time however, it became increasingly clear to me what an MBA does and does not achieve.
Broadly speaking, we have two different ways of making decisions: intuitive and rational. An intuitive decision is what some would call “common sense”. This type of decision making is great for very complex decisions and also those in which we have significant experience. For example, “Employee X simply isn’t the right person for this job, based on my overall impression of their competence.", or “That company brochure simply looks unappealing.” Rational decision making however is far more limited in such complex situations because it generally forces an over-simplification. For example, “After evaluating Employee X’s levels of attributes W, Y and Z, we found them to be lower than required.” In such a situation we are likely to find ourselves tweaking the rationally formulated indicators to match up with our intuition. As a result, most of us make the vast majority of our decisions intuitively. It’s faster, more efficient, is better at dealing with high levels of complexity and taps into sub-conscious thought processes. So what role is there then for rational problem solving of the type propounded so strongly by management sciences?
Rational problem solving, which is the predominant (but not the only) form taught in MBAs is only actually useful for a small percentage of situations where intuitive problem solving breaks down. When past experiences, biases or blindspots mean that we need to take a “step back” and re-evaluate on some other basis. Why then should we care so much about this small fraction of situations? Because it is precisely these new, previously unencountered, non-routine situations that force our most important decisions. Think of the financial crisis, the rising importance of China or the development of new technologies. It is too tempting to intuitively apply past experience to future situations. Our minds apply past patterns to current situations and make mistakes with often tragic consequences. Some of these seemingly "common sense" rational models allow a framework for an explicit evaluation of a new situation and the assumptions behind our reasoning. This is an immensely powerful supplementary "toolbox".
MBAs are meant to train managers who are used to making intuitive “common sense” decisions to use more process and model-based reasoning. Examples of this are “Porter’s 5 competitive forces model” or the “5 Ps of marketing”. However there is not clear evidence that such methods and models produce better decisions or better managers. Furthermore, after completing MBAs most managers simply fall back into old practices and habits.
For a long time I held the view that an MBA is mainly just a good way to learn a certain “vocabulary” as well as financial analysis skills, but beyond that has a theories and models of questionable usefulness. With time however, it became increasingly clear to me what an MBA does and does not achieve.
Broadly speaking, we have two different ways of making decisions: intuitive and rational. An intuitive decision is what some would call “common sense”. This type of decision making is great for very complex decisions and also those in which we have significant experience. For example, “Employee X simply isn’t the right person for this job, based on my overall impression of their competence.", or “That company brochure simply looks unappealing.” Rational decision making however is far more limited in such complex situations because it generally forces an over-simplification. For example, “After evaluating Employee X’s levels of attributes W, Y and Z, we found them to be lower than required.” In such a situation we are likely to find ourselves tweaking the rationally formulated indicators to match up with our intuition. As a result, most of us make the vast majority of our decisions intuitively. It’s faster, more efficient, is better at dealing with high levels of complexity and taps into sub-conscious thought processes. So what role is there then for rational problem solving of the type propounded so strongly by management sciences?
Rational problem solving, which is the predominant (but not the only) form taught in MBAs is only actually useful for a small percentage of situations where intuitive problem solving breaks down. When past experiences, biases or blindspots mean that we need to take a “step back” and re-evaluate on some other basis. Why then should we care so much about this small fraction of situations? Because it is precisely these new, previously unencountered, non-routine situations that force our most important decisions. Think of the financial crisis, the rising importance of China or the development of new technologies. It is too tempting to intuitively apply past experience to future situations. Our minds apply past patterns to current situations and make mistakes with often tragic consequences. Some of these seemingly "common sense" rational models allow a framework for an explicit evaluation of a new situation and the assumptions behind our reasoning. This is an immensely powerful supplementary "toolbox".
Sunday, February 05, 2012
Businesspeople
Gregory Tayi and Olivier Ngororabanga coordinated one of the micro-hydropower projects GIZ supported whilst I was coordinating the project there in 2006-2009. It was a great pleasure and privilege to work with both of them. Gregory was interviewed a few months ago by the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15695209. It's a charming interview:
The main capital one has is oneself; to know what one wants and where one wants to go.
...
Money is not what makes the [business]person. ... [Business] is making life easier for others.
 |
| At the inauguration of the REPRO micro-hydropower plant in 2010 |
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Restart
I have decided to start blogging again. This has a number of reasons, notably:
But this is what continues to motivate me, and hopefully this will become a theme of this blog.
- Writing is a great way to sort and articulate my thoughts on a particular issue for myself.
- Apparently some other people find these thoughts interesting as well.
But this is what continues to motivate me, and hopefully this will become a theme of this blog.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Good place to drink beer #2
At Virunga Lodge on a hill between Lake Bulera and Virunga National Park in early December.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Muzungu's burden
Having finished a long overdue reading of William Easterly's book, White Man's Burden a couple of months ago, I was pleasantly surprised by the book: Easterly's articles (e.g. Can the West Save Africa, Dismal Science) tend to be a rather excessively pessimistic deconstruction of the failings of modern development aid; in this book Easterly goes much further in proposing ways in which we can move forward in solving the problems of the poor.
The central argument is one of Planners versus Searchers. Easterly's Planners are the proponents of the classical top-down development aid. This is particularly prevalent in the large bi-lateral and multi-lateral donor organisations. The Searchers are grass-roots implementers who try out and search for techniques and projects that work. Many grass-roots NGOs can be described as Searchers. Reform of development aid according to Easterly should involve a shift of power from Planners to Searchers. Easterly also tackles a range of other development issues such as accountability, recipient country participation and military intervention.
White Man's Burden is often seen as the antithesis to Jeffrey Sachs' book, End of Poverty. This comparison hardly does Easterly justice. The End of Poverty is a mostly anecdotal account with very little hard data to back up the core theses of the book. White Man's Burden bases its arguments on historical data, and uses anecdotal evidence only to complement, illustrate and occasionally complete when statistical data is insufficient. By comparison, I found The End of Poverty a weak and sloppy work that borders on populism.
I do however find one important weakness in the argument of White Man's Burden. Whilst results-oriented Searchers may indeed be able to offer direct solutions to straightforward problems such as school enrollment and mosquito bed nets, it is unlikely that more long-term projects such as private sector development or vocational training will work in the same way. Long-term projects tend to require people who can afford to worry less about immediate results. There is a balance to be struck.
This is an excellent book and an entertaining read.
The central argument is one of Planners versus Searchers. Easterly's Planners are the proponents of the classical top-down development aid. This is particularly prevalent in the large bi-lateral and multi-lateral donor organisations. The Searchers are grass-roots implementers who try out and search for techniques and projects that work. Many grass-roots NGOs can be described as Searchers. Reform of development aid according to Easterly should involve a shift of power from Planners to Searchers. Easterly also tackles a range of other development issues such as accountability, recipient country participation and military intervention.
White Man's Burden is often seen as the antithesis to Jeffrey Sachs' book, End of Poverty. This comparison hardly does Easterly justice. The End of Poverty is a mostly anecdotal account with very little hard data to back up the core theses of the book. White Man's Burden bases its arguments on historical data, and uses anecdotal evidence only to complement, illustrate and occasionally complete when statistical data is insufficient. By comparison, I found The End of Poverty a weak and sloppy work that borders on populism.
I do however find one important weakness in the argument of White Man's Burden. Whilst results-oriented Searchers may indeed be able to offer direct solutions to straightforward problems such as school enrollment and mosquito bed nets, it is unlikely that more long-term projects such as private sector development or vocational training will work in the same way. Long-term projects tend to require people who can afford to worry less about immediate results. There is a balance to be struck.
This is an excellent book and an entertaining read.
Sunday, December 07, 2008
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Turpitude
I just figured out that German citizens don't actually need a visa to the US. Yay. There is however an Electronic System of Travel Authorisation (currently voluntary) which includes some great questions such as:
That started me thinking about any immoral activities that it could be fun to engage in whilst in the US. Is self-idolatry immoral?
Yes, Boris and I have been covertly trying to collect information on your ingenious political system in order to replicate it in the Congo.
I assume this means its ok if I detained a child from a citizen of another country?
I had to look up "turpitude". The first thing Wikipedia comes up with is that is is a legal term used in the Visa Waiver forms without proper explanation.
Am I morally turpit? Leave your opinions in the comments.
Are you seeking entry to engage in criminal or immoral activities?
That started me thinking about any immoral activities that it could be fun to engage in whilst in the US. Is self-idolatry immoral?
Have you ever been or are you now involved in espionage or sabotage; or in terrorist activities; or genocide?
Yes, Boris and I have been covertly trying to collect information on your ingenious political system in order to replicate it in the Congo.
Have you ever detained, retained or withheld custody of a child from a U.S. citizen... ?
I assume this means its ok if I detained a child from a citizen of another country?
Have you ever been arrested or convicted for an offense or crime involving moral turpitude...?
I had to look up "turpitude". The first thing Wikipedia comes up with is that is is a legal term used in the Visa Waiver forms without proper explanation.
Am I morally turpit? Leave your opinions in the comments.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Monday, November 10, 2008
French, Rwandans, Germans and judiciaries
Foreword: In the interests of German solidarity with the Government of Rwanda the author would like to express his solidarity with Rwandese dislike of all things French (except for French cuisine, a couple of nice French people I know and funny accents), and asks that his German passport not be held against him.
Back in 2006 Paul Kagame and other top Rwandan officials were indicted by a French judge for the shooting down of the former president's plane in 1994. This was a major trigger of the Rwandan genocide, but there is little evidence and many suspects in the case. The Rwandans responded by kicking all French organisations out of the country.
Under EU cooperation agreements, EU member countries are required to carry out arrest warrants of other member states. This, Germany did for one Rwandan official, Ms Kabuye, Chief of Protocol for the President, traveling through the country. This afternoon there were spontaneous government-ordered protests in the centre of Kigali and in front of the German embassy. (UPDATE 12/11: And the German embassador was asked to leave.)
On the arrest, the BBC writes:
Al Jazeera quotes the Rwandan Information Minister who confirms :
And in the Rwandan pro-government New Times:
?
Back in 2006 Paul Kagame and other top Rwandan officials were indicted by a French judge for the shooting down of the former president's plane in 1994. This was a major trigger of the Rwandan genocide, but there is little evidence and many suspects in the case. The Rwandans responded by kicking all French organisations out of the country.
Under EU cooperation agreements, EU member countries are required to carry out arrest warrants of other member states. This, Germany did for one Rwandan official, Ms Kabuye, Chief of Protocol for the President, traveling through the country. This afternoon there were spontaneous government-ordered protests in the centre of Kigali and in front of the German embassy. (UPDATE 12/11: And the German embassador was asked to leave.)
On the arrest, the BBC writes:
Ms Kabuye has visited the country before but under German law could not be arrested as she was part of an official delegation. "Rwanda has been made aware on several recent occasions that if Ms Kabuye returned to Germany she would be arrested," said [a German] diplomat.
Al Jazeera quotes the Rwandan Information Minister who confirms :
Louise Mushikiwabo, Rwanda's information minister, said that Kabuye was not surprised at being arrested on arrival in Frankfurt.
And in the Rwandan pro-government New Times:
[Foreign affairs minister Rosemary Museminali] said that prior to her travel, the German government had warned Kabuye that she risked being arrested...
Seems clear. But then the Rwandan New Times quotes the Foreign Affairs Minister:“We emphasised in the note that Kabuye ... was performing diplomatic duties and therefore the Germany authorities wouldn’t have arrested her...” said [Foreign Affairs Minister Museminali.
?
And to finish, who can explain how the whole "indictment -> arrest -> trial -> verdict" thing works?
"We have always been surprised that people can take these bogus indictments seriously. How can you condemn someone before even bothering to hear their side of the story?” [Justice Minister Tharcisse Karugarama] wondered. (New Times)
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Sunday, October 26, 2008
100th post
I started this blog 2 and a half years and 3 countries ago and I still don't know what it is for. Here is a selection of the best posts based on hits, comments and my personal favorites:
- Word of the Day: development tourist - February 2008 - Vocabulary for the development industry
- Poor Kiyovu - August 2008 - Social engineering in the City of Kigal
- The problem with Africa's biggest solar plant - June 2007 - My critique of a big solar power plant
- Word of the Day: donor dumping - March 2008 - More vocabulary for the development industry
- Ruhengeri and surroundings (video) - October 2006 - The Rwandan countryside on video
- Adventures with petty criminals - June 2006 - Crime in Cape Town
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Nobody cares what I think
Here is a graphic (taken from FiveThirtyEight) that today makes me feel better about the world. According to the site, Barack Obama has a 90.7% probability of winning the election (Win Percentage) based on several current polls and current trends.Not being a US voter, of course I don't get to vote. I feel strangely cheated, as I think I would do a better job of it than approximately 46.6% of US citizens. I feel that it should be in countries' interests to invite me to vote in their national elections to improve the quality of the outcome. Please send invitations via my profile in the right column of this page.
More seriously, I ask whether there isn't a case to be made for US "protectorates" like Afghanistan and Iraq to have a voice in who will run their domestic security and reconstruction projects. This doesn't necessary have to be by involvement in presidential elections, but perhaps of a ratification by direct suffrage of nominated American representatives in their country. By extension, should citizens in developing countries, whose social services are funded by foreign donor governments, not be allowed to hold those governments to account. Should they not be allowed to chose who their donors are, if they have such a huge influence on the development of their country? Just imagine a news announcement like: "In Rwanda on Saturday, a new World Bank country representative has been elected by the people of Rwanda. The incumbent, Victoria Kwakwa, confirmed that she would accept the election result and called on her supporters to peacefully accept the decision."
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